Thanks for taking the time to write this. In the past 3 boom periods (late 90s, 2008, 2021) using this simple Sanity Test helped me avoid a lot of the excesses of the era. This basically involved guesstimating the total Max Ceiling TAM of each opportunity set and then adding up the implied numbers for all companies raising capital in the market at the time. Funnily, this test led to values from 2-20x Max Ceiling TAM! Ergo, the whole industry pocket was a net short from a positioning perspective. Now, one can always underestimate Max Ceiling TAM, but the game is one of Odds and not Precision.